the awesome performance of of the DoublePlay v3.5.2 forward-test is raising some very valid concerns about the money management logic behind this Expert Advisor… or more accurately, the kind of risk settings that i was using for the test.  a few visitors and subscribers have asked if the performance was a result of assuming way too much risk.  some also wanted to know about that scary 5-lot trade and the solitary USDCHF trade in the statement.

i’m sorry that i’ve not been very clear about this very important aspect before.  will try to explain as much as i can here :

starting : i was using DoublePlay v3.5 at the beginning.  it required a RiskPercent setting of between 1 to 5, 5 being most aggressive.  without knowing what it meant, i set it to 5… thinking “.. lets see what this baby can do!!”  but when i saw it made it’s first 5-lot trade, i knew the risks it was taking was way too high… hence i immediately closed the trade manually(luckily with a little profit) and reduced the risk to 2.  that experience revealed that a RiskPercent setting of 5 actually meant 25%.  setting it to 2 reduced the risk to 10%… still very high… but it’s just a test anyway, right?  so 10% risk is where i left it from the 2nd trade onwards.  other settings were out-of-the-box : StopLoss=50, TrailingStop=20, TakeProfit=200, Lots=1.0, mm=true

from the 2nd trade onwards : as mentioned, real risk = 10% of capital everytime it trades.  at this setting, all you’ll need is 7 consecutive losers hitting your stop-loss (50 pips) to reduce a starting cap of $10K to just below the half-way mark ($4,728 to be exact).

where you noticed a drop in lots traded : lots traded went down from 3.00 to 1.80 at around 19th sept.  that’s when i was given DoublePlay v3.5.2, which uses a new and improved (i think it was more like a bug fix really) risk setting called MaximumRisk. with the upgrade was an advisory that said MaximumRisk should not be set higher than 5%, and that the new optimum TakeProfit should be set to 100 pips, down from the original 200 pips. OK… the creator should know his Expert Advisor best… so that’s what i did.  MaximumRisk=5% and TakeProfit=100 pips.  Amazingly, MaximumRisk=5% now really mean a risk of 5% on capital on every trade (it should have been like that in the first place!)  so… from 19th sept onwards, the demo account was trading with a lower risk of 5%. 

what about the USDCHF trade?  it was just a miscommunication in the advisory that was sent together with the upgrade.  the creator has since corrected it and emphasized that DoublePlay should only be trading the EURUSD/H1 chart.  he is still testing it on the USDCHF and will only endorse it when he has enough data to show that it will be profitable trading that pair.

conclusion : although DoublePlay has been tested here with a rather high risk setting, it IS still just a test.  using the same risk settings on your live account would just be irresponsible.  ideally, i would maybe trade at 1% to 2% at most with real money.  i’ve been told professional fund managers typically don’t risk more that 1% on every position they take… so maybe you might want to practise that to be on the conservative side.

bottom line is this… the tests you see here on my blog is not a representation of how your money will grow(or shrink) if you bought any of the Expert Advisors today and traded it with real money.  the tests are meant to be just tests.  i was running them for my own benefit before, and i strongly urge everyone who plans to trade with Expert Advisors to run your own tests for as long as it takes to make sure you understand how your Expert Advisor works and the risks that comes with it.

so far, we have yet to see the downside of DoublePlay.  i’m still waiting for it to happen before i can really give it an objective review.  however, i am liking what i see so far.  the chart is also showing that DoublePlay have been profitable when the EURUSD was ranging (between 1.3550 - 1.3700 from 27th aug till about 7th sept when the NFP came out), and as well as when it was trending up since 7th sept.   DoublePlay Chart (27 Aug - 27 Sept 2007)

please please please… run your own tests and make your own judgements and conclusions.  i just hope that the facts that i’ve painstakingly presented here will be helpful to you in some way.  *peace*

to our success - ck :O)

you have come to the right place if you are looking for un-biased reviews on forex expert advisors :O)

as usual, live forward-test account statements of the currently tested 6 expert advisors are here (updated every 10 mins) : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements 

frankly, i was hoping that i would not need to update the blog so soon… but the events that have happened over the past 24 hours are just too good to let them go by without having them updated into the blog :O)

first and most important of all, we have reached a BIG BIG milestone in our testing.  DoublePlay v3.5.2 has officially doubled the demo account that it’s been trading as of 4 hours ago!!  $10,000.00 has grown to $20,077.62 in less than a month!!  i hope you can sense my excitement…. because i’m also discovering this at the same time as you (unless you are those who have already purchased DoublePlay in the past and are already enjoying it’s fruits). 

as you can see from the live statements, none of the other Expert Advisors even come close.  IMPORTANT : you may want to note that if this was a real account, i would immediately withdraw $5,000 to protect my capital.  in that way, if any drawdowns were to happen to the remaining $15,000, i would still be at break-even if it went down -66% to $5,000.  this is my way of mediating the risks that comes with  trading with expert advisors.  it’s nothing profound, but i’m sure it makes perfect sense.  leaving all the profits in there to compound even faster is a good idea too… but you’ll never know what this unpredictable financial market will do next.  most expert advisors are optimised for either a trending market, ranging market, or for breakouts that happen during news events.  i don’t believe that there’s any Expert Advisor out there that will profit in all these 3 market conditions.  due to this reason, i feel that it’s prudent to take profits out when you have made a good sum :O)

2nd milestone, and most flattering of all, is that the creator of DoublePlay had taken notice of this blog!!  :O)  i would never have expected him to read the endlessly wordy posts, let alone post a comment… complimenting the work that i’ve done on the blog for the forex community :O)  sweet!!  :O)

got to sign off… the week’s only half done, and i’m already looking forward to writing the review this weekend on how our 6 Expert Advisors fare in week #5 :O) 

to our success!! - ck

ps : the US$2,500 worth of freebies are still available.  if you have not joined my mailing list, i urge you to join now to find out how you can get them (especially if you are considering purchasing the DoublePlay Expert Advisor) :O)  offer is strictly to members of the mailing list… and for a limited time only :O)

we are still testing 6 Expert Advisors and the live forward-test account statements are here (updated every 10 mins) : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements 

with the markets starting in about 2 hours…. we are all set for a new week.  the following has been done :

1. RobinHood has been given a 2nd chance.  this time round, it’s configured not to trade on Fridays, and i’ll manually turn it off on major news events.  as we have seen over the past weeks, RobinHood does not seem to like news events very much.  a detailed statement (with balance & equity chart) for the past run of RobinHood has been archived.  see it at the same link above.
2. DoublePlay is now also forward tested on the RFXT platform.  according to the creator of DoublePlay, it works best on RFXT, and not so well on IBFX.  let’s see what happens.
3. we are in the process of getting another Expert Advisors to test (used to be 3, but i dropped the other 2 because their strategy does not seem sound.  they either double-up or average down and/or maintain a scary number of open trades… waiting for the market to reverse in it’s favor…. very unsound trade management in my opinion.  a loser is a loser…  a good Expert Advisor should just close it out and start looking for new entries.  if it’s win/lose ratio is reasonable, it should be profitable when coupled with good trade management and money management logic.) 

let’s sit back and see how this week unfolds.  check back often to see the statements!

to our success!! - ck 

it’s been much anticipated…. the results of the Expert Advisor ‘race’ :O)  as expected, the champion is none other than DoublePlay, with an amazing gain of +91% in 4 weeks.  will it’s performance continue?  only time will tell :O)  i’ll try to keep the forward-testing of all the Expert Advisors running as long as i can so that we can get a good picture of how they perform over time.  see the live forward-test account statements here (updated every 10 mins) : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements

results (in order of performance) : 

1. DoublePlay v3.5 (upgraded to v3.5.2), +91% after 26 days
2. Steinitz HAS MTF, +14% after 28 days

believe it or not, the rest are all underwater…. together with my favourite RobinHood.

it’s been a good learning experience, seeing how the Expert Advisors performed through the Non-Farm Payroll report and the recent FED’s interest rate cut.  it’s clear from the forward test data that RobinHood would have performed much better if it was turned off during those events.  if it was turned off, we should see it achieving at least +21% over the 27 days it’s been running.  i’ll start a new demo for RobinHood come monday, and trade it by turning it off during major events and news.

in my opinion, KISS and PipBoxer still have a chance….. KISS is down -3% after trading for 6 days.  PipBoxer is down -14% after 26 days.  with a few good winners, they should be able to get into positive territory soon.

and since i still have the server capacity to run more Expert Advisors, i’ll keep EuroX2 running just for the fun of it.  i’m now looking at adding another 2 more Expert Advisors that have been recommended by our subscribers.  if they can really deliver their claims, i believe DoublePlay will have to work doubly hard to keep it’s position :O)  look out for them in the coming week!

i’ll post a more detailed analysis about DoublePlay, Steinitz and RobinHood soon. 

to our success!! - ck

ok… first things first.  we are now officially forward-testing 6 Expert Advisors :O)

1. DoublePlay v3.5.2 (new version!)
2. PipBoxer v2.0.5
3. RobinHood v4.6
4. KISS
5. Steinitz HAS MTF
6. EuroX2

i’ll wait for the week to end before posting the results… but it has been clear from the start that DoublePlay has been leading the game since day #1.  i have little doubt that it will retain it’s #1 ranking this week.  if you are dying to know how the Expert Advisors are doing, you can see the live forward-test account statements here (updated every 10 mins) : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements

as mentioned in a past update, i’m currently working on a report, documenting how i managed to grow my capital by +90% in under 3 months with the help of my favourite Expert Advisor - RobinHood.  it’ll contain a full statement of my live account, detailing all the winners, losers, deposits and withdrawals.  it will also contain some thoughts about trading with Expert Advisors, as well as some of the ideas and rules that i follow religiously, which i belief were key in helping the account grow +90% so quickly. 

if you are interested in getting this report, please do consider joining my mailing list.  i trust that it will help turn skeptics into believers of automated trading systems, and i belief that there will also be some useful information and tips for those who are already convinced, but are still trying to figure out how to start, which Expert Advisor to trade with, or what precautions to take when selecting and trading with an Expert Advisor.

IMPORTANT!! : i’m also currently working out an amazing offer that i believe will definitely blow you away!! … especially if you are already convinced and considering buying the DoublePlay or RobinHood Expert Advisors… the only 2 Expert Advisors in the market that i truly believe in (for now).

i’m designing a package that’s worth over US$2,500 in value if you purchase DoublePlay or RobinHood through me.  this is a limited offer and is only offered to the subscribers of my mailing list.  so… if you ARE considering purchasing DoublePlay or RobinHood, or are just curious about how you can benefit immensely from this amazing deal, do yourself and me a favor and join my mailing list.  i’m sure you won’t find a better deal elsewhere :O)

to our success!! - ck

could not resist buying the KISS Expert Advisor :O)  it’s officially on test as of 2 hours ago.  see the live forward-test statements here : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements  (all statements are updated automatically every 10 mins)

after receiving a few comments from the subscribers of my mailing list, i decided to review what i can offer to those who have joined the list, and also to those who have yet to.  there was not much sense in sending you the full account statements of the Expert Advisor forward tests since they are all available online anyway…. (see here : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements)

this is what i’ll endeavour to do….  with a bit of experience and success with Expert Advisors (although i’m no ‘expert’ in Forex or Expert Advisors or anything to do with investing), i plan to document how i managed to grow my capital by +90% in under 3 months with the help of my favourite Expert Advisor.  it’ll contain a full statement of my live account, detailing all the winners, losers, deposits and withdrawals.  it will also contain some thoughts about trading with Expert Advisors, as well as some of the ideas and rules that i follow which i belief were key in helping the account grow +90% so quickly.

so… if you are interested in getting this report, please do consider joining my mailing list.  i trust that it will help turn skeptics into believers of automated trading systems, and i belief that there will also be some useful information and tips for those who are already convinced, but are still trying to figure out how to start or which Expert Advisor to trade with.

so what’s in it for me?  since starting this blog, i’ve got to know a number of like-minded individuals from all over the world.  i hope that this small community will continue to grow with my blog… and with more minds working together, i hope that we can find a couple of reasonably good Expert Advisors out there that can help us grow our money faster. 

as a matter of fact, based on the contributions of existing subscribers of the mailing list, i’m now considering purchasing yet another Expert Advisor to test.  the name of the Expert Advisor is called ‘KISS’.  the strategy looks sound, and from the creator’s website, this Expert Advisor seems to contain some logic that could give it an edge over RobinHood and DoublePlay.  i’m aiming to start forward-testing KISS by early next week.

 so… please consider joining the mailing list.  even if not for the report, you’ll at least be joining a community that shares the same interests as you :O)

to our success!! - ck

results so far (in order of performance) :

1. DoublePlay v3.0.5 (+65% as of 12 Sept 2007)
2. PipBoxer v2.0.5 (-5% as of 12 Sept 2007)
3. RobinHood v4.6  (-35% as of 12 Sept 2007)**
4. EuroX2 (-54% as of 12 Sept 2007)

once again, here’s the link to the forward-test demo account statements : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements  (all statements are updated automatically every 10 mins)

yeap… i’m still on holiday.  it’s been a few days now since i last checked how our Expert Advisors are doing.  yet another amazing run for DoublePlay v3.5.  the demo account is now up +60% in just 2 weeks!  i think DoublePlay is going to be the next Expert Advisor that i’m going to live-trade next.

i feel a bit guilty about how RobinHood v4.6 has been doing.  the creator of RobinHood had cautioned about leaving this Expert Advisor running over a Non-Farm Payroll report.  due to the volatility of the currencies before and during the release of such reports, the risks would naturally tend to be higher during this period.  it’s also not a desireable situation to have an open trade in your trading account when such a report is due.  as i was away on holiday, i did not have the chance to turn off the Expert Advisor like i would with my live account (i stopped it totally before departure :O).  due to this, Murphy did his thing and the demo account suffered a hit.  to be fair to this Expert Advisor, i am thinking of giving it a fresh start once i return from my holidays.  RobinHood Expert Advisor has been my favourite so far and it has done very well for me on my live account.  each Expert Advisor is designed to run best under specific conditions as specified by it’s creator.  so i think it’s only fair that RobinHood is given a 2nd chance don’t you think?

here’s the link : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements

all statements are updated automatically every 10 mins… so be sure to check back regularly to see how the Expert Advisors are doing.  you’ll find an extra Expert Advisor in there called the ‘Steinitz HAS MTF’ that hasn’t made a trade yet.  i think i may have mis-configured it, hence i did not include it in the list of Expert Advisors that we are forward-testing.

for 2 weeks starting 5th sept, i will not be able to update the blog as i will be away on a holiday with my wife and kid.  i hope the above link to the live statements will be helpful for you to keep track of how the Expert Advisors are doing.  it will require a bit of analysing to fully appreciate the figures…. but it’s all there… so please help yourselves :O)

‘VPS’ stands for Virtual Private Server. imagine a super computer to be a hotel. ‘renting’ a VPS from a service provider is like renting a hotel room. we don’t really need a full-fledged computer to run an Expert Advisor… hence, a VPS seems to be a logical thing to consider if you are in need of a dedicated computer to run an Expert Advisor.

i’ve tested the basic Windows VPS package (WVPS-1) from SWVPS over the last week and managed to run 3 copies of InterBank FX’s trading platform concurrently without any problems (i would estimate that running 4 copies would still be fine, but 5 would be stretching it a bit) .  that means that you could run 3 to 4 different Expert Advisors at the same time, on the same machine… at a very affordable US$15.83 per month (based on US$190 for 12 months).  you’ll get the benefits of running your Expert Advisor(s) in a professionally managed datacentre that uses Ciscoâ„¢ switches and Firewalls, APC™  UPS and PDU’s, Dellâ„¢ and Supermicroâ„¢ servers (minimum Dual Intel Xeon 2.8Ghz HT with 2-8GB RAM) with SCSI RAID hard drives.  for the techies, you’ll immediately see that you’ll have much better peace of mind knowing that your Expert Advisor is running in an environment that no home computer can match in terms of reliability… critical if you are really serious about trading real money with Expert Advisors.

and just in case you are wondering, the answer is ‘yes’…. the banner below carries an affiliate link (ie. i’ll get a small commission if you click on the link and sign up for any of their plans).  you can buy direct from them if you wish at www.swvps.com (no affiliate link attached).  but if you buy using the banner below, i’ll send you some important information that will help make your VPS setup more friendly for running Expert Advisors.

  

i’ll send you information on how to :

1. configure your VPS to automatically log in using the administrator’s account and password everytime it boots up / reboots
2. configure your trading platform(s) or Expert Advisor(s) to start up automatically when the administrator logs in
3. configure a daily or weekly automatic reboot to ensure that your VPS runs optimally (you know how Windows is.. ;O)

in my opinion, having the above 3 things setup on the VPS is crutial in making sure that your Expert Advisor(s) is/are kept running all the time, especially after an unexpected system reboot or a scheduled system maintenance by the people who manages the datacentre.  i’ve spent hours researching and testing this, and will freely share this information for those who sign up with SWVPS using the banner above.  i hope you can see that i’m not hard selling here…. just trying to share information about good deals and also to provide value-added information in exchange for a little commission.  email me at ck@ckowyong.com if you have any queries :O)

p.s. : they offer a 15-days money back guarantee… so you really have nothing much to loose to try them out :O)  *peace*