on 4th November 2007, i posted a similiar post.  back then, i took a step back and reviewed where my search was going and made a few points that still holds for me today.  you can re-read that post here : http://ckowyong.com/blog/?p=63

this is going to be a long post.  many people may not agree to what i’m going to say, but those who are familiar with the forex market and expert advisors should be able to appreciate it.  so please read with an open mind if you have about 10 mins to spare, ok?

clickbank and other forex affiliate products

i was recently asked about Forex Beater that costs US$49.95.  if you visit the link for it’s affiliates, it states that it gives a commission of 75% off the sale price.  that means the seller gets only about US$12.50…and that’s not even considering how much ClickBank gets out of that miserly US$12.50.  if something really works, it must be worth much more than that!

a fellow forex blogger also wrote about the Expert Advisor business here :
http://www.macrotactics.com/2008/08/25/forex-funnel-review-and-a-bit-about-the-expert-advisor-business

the above link is a good read, but it may dampen your spirits a little if you are still in a stage where you get all excited whenever you read one of those long and well crafted websites that sells Expert Advisors.

the SWITCH

the following link brings you to an interview with Mr Thomas Bopp :
http://championship.mql4.com/2008/news/371

it’s not obvious, but near the end of that interview, Thomas mentioned something about a SWITCH.  a few months back, i attended a forex talk by Kathy Lien.  she too mentioned about this SWITCH.

market conditions changes from time to time.  most often in unexpected ways and times.  there are trading strategies that works great in a certain market condition, but fails when it changes.  banks and institutions have spent years trying to develop a SWITCH that could monitor the market and switch to the most profitable strategy as and when market conditions change.  according to Kathy and Thomas, this automated SWITCH does not exist…. yet.

on the other hand, the best SWITCH that we’ve got is likely the trader in front of your computer right now.  an educated and competent chart reader who understands the fundamentals is our best bet.

in other words, invest in your education.  there’s no short cut in this game.

mean reversion + martingale = DISASTER

if you do not know what these 2 terms mean, below are their explanation from investopedia.com :
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/meanreversion.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/martingalesystem.asp

time and time again, we see EAs coming into the market that are based on the above 2 theories.  they work great in a volatile ranging market, but once it catches a strong trend on the wrong side, it would crash faster than you can say “what the…”.

how to tell if an EA is based on the mean reversion or the martingale theories?  the only way is to scrutinise it’s trades.  if the EA seller’s website does not offer a statement for you to check out, you will be pretty much clueless about how it trades.

don’t get me wrong.  such systems (or any hybrids of them) can be very profitable.  that can produce amazing profits and generate beautiful back and forward test results.  but what’s lacking is the SWITCH that we mentioned earlier.  with good money management and a seasoned human SWITCH, once could still make some money with such a system.

but in general, systems that uses these theories and touts about it being a fully automated system should raise lots of red flags.  in fact, a fully automated Expert Advisor that does not require human intervention or regular optimisation is equally suspicious.

back testing and optimisation

here’s another great interview with William Boatright, Yuriy Zaytcev and Olexandr Topchylo :
http://championship.mql4.com/2008/news/376

with the lack of a highly intelligent Expert Advisors that can adapt to all sorts of market conditions, one of the best approach is to run backtests and optimise.  the caveat, however, is that past performance does not equal to future results.  realistically speaking, what can guarantee future results anyway!

but if an Expert Advisor or strategy reacts well to optimisation, then optimising the system periodically would be the way to go.  many of us are still trapped in the “If it’s a good EA, it should not require any human intervention or optimisation.” mindset.  well… aren’t we all looking for the Holy Grail that does not exist?

conclusion

this is going to dampen a lot of hopes out there.  but from what i have read and from my personal experiences (and many others in the FaceBook group), all i can say is that Expert Advisors are great trader’s tools.  they are excellent and amazingly efficient in executing the programmed strategies, but in my honest opinion, Expert Advisors are best used as tools only.

to trade successfully with Expert Advisors, we first and foremost need to know how to read the charts.  and with good knowledge of how the EA works (as well as it’s strengths and weaknesses), we can then deploy the EA to do it’s job at the most appropriate situation.  we have to be fully accountable for our own actions, and that includes the evaluation, purchase and employment of any strategy or system.

so… the search for the best trader’s tool continues.  for me, i’m sticking to PIPForia and Bogie for now.  using them requires some effort and education, so they are not your typical plug-and-play “Holy Grail” type of Expert Advisors.

please leave a comment if you find this post useful (or not).

good trading to all!

ck

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the interview can now be heard at the following :
http://asktheeaexperts.com/archives

if the audio does not stream smoothly, try downloading it to your computer first.  you can then load the MP3 file into your MP3 player and listen to it at your convenience.

the audio recording is approximately 62 mins long.  i urge you to listen to it in it’s entirety as William shared some very pertinent information about his future plans in the last 10 minutes of the interview.

in less than 2 months, Bogie-NN-v8 (now v8b) has doubled the account!  that’s > 100% in 2 months!  you can see the statement here :

http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements/bogie-neuralnetwork-8/statement.htm (updated every 30 mins, running 100% fully automated)

if you are interested to try Bogie-NN-v8 for yourself, you can download a demo at http://bogie-enterprises.com/bogie-blog

if you are already convinced by the forward-test that you have seen, and would like to get a 20% discount off the usual monthly subscription of US$49.50, just send an email to bogie@ckowyong.com

i hope what i’ve been doing on this blog has been able to save you some time and money :O)

wishing you success in your trading!

ck

ps : you’ve got to listen to the interview!

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if you have been following this blog, you will most likely know that i, from time to time, will negotiate with Expert Advisor creators for discounts. i will then pass these discounts down to the readers and members of this blog.

There Is Power in Numbers…

when we act as a group.

where possible, i will post the discounts here. however, to be fair to the EA creators who are also promoting the EAs themselves, some “ck-exclusive” deals can only be communicated through emails which i send out to my 1000+ strong members.

i’m sorry that i do not have any freebies to offer you for joining my mailing list. all i can promise you is that once i find any profitable EAs, members of my blog would be the first to hear about it. there are a lot of crap EAs out there… and my intention is to review and sift through all the hype to bring you EAs that can really make money… at a discounted price if possible :O)

join my mailing list if you would like to be kept updated with the progress of my quest for profitable Expert Advisors… and save some money along the way! :O)

ps : your email privacy is important to me.

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 if you’ve been following the performance of Bogie-NN-v8 closely, you’ll know that it’s been doing well so far.   Bogie-NN-v8 is by far one of the best performing EAs that i have tested in a while.  at the time of typing this, my demo account is up about +97% since 29th may 2008.

http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements/bogie-neuralnetwork-8/statement.htm (updated every 30 mins)

i don’t think anyone can say for sure if Bogie-NN-v8 will continue to perform or not.  but it’s clear that William Boatright has developed something that’s quite impressive :O)

on that note, i am very pleased to let you now that i’ve managed to get an exclusive interview with William this coming saturday!  the interview will be done over a LIVE Webinar… and every reader of this blog is invited to attend!  :O)  click on the below image to find out more!

 i’ve prepared a list of questions to ask William during the interview.  however, if you have a question of your own, please feel free to submit it at http://ASKtheEAexperts.com when you register for the webinar.  i can’t guarantee that your questions will be answered, but i’ll do my best.

seats limited.

ps : the webinar is FREE for all… but it takes a lot of effort to get it organised.  if you appreciate what i’m doing, i would be delighted if you could buy me a coffee :O)

venti please.

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post superseded by http://ckowyong.com/blog/?p=126

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since my last post, a lot of interest has been building up around William Boatright’s Bogie-NN-v8 Expert Advisor. if everyone who got the 20% discount link from me subscribed to it, i would estimate that almost 40 visitors of this blog are already trading with it (including me of course :O)

i apologize for the delay in getting a preliminary review of the EA out. just managed to get round to it after spending a good part of the day looking at the trades. i figured that the only way to really see what Bogie-NN-v8 was doing is to plot everything out on the chart.

this is the result :

i’ve only plotted 16 of the 17 completed trades here (trade #17 was +68 pips)… and as i’m writing this, trade #18 is still open with a +23 pips gain. *nice* :O)

what impressed me most was how the EA was able to flip a LONG trade into a SHORT position (and vice versa) with excellent timing while keeping good profits on both sides. have a look at how the following trades played out from the above chart :

trade #9 going into trade #10
trade #10 going into trade #11
trade #11 going into trade #12
trade #15 going into trade #16

as you can see, Bogie-NN-v8 has also been really accurate in getting in in the right direction very early, sometimes even BEFORE the trend clearly shows itself. and it’s also doing very well in detecting a trend reversal where it flips a LONG position into a SHORT position (and vice versa) to get the most out of the price movement.

the hard stop loss of 200 pips has yet to be hit in my forward-test (although the first trade came close). other than that, the EA has been smart enough to reverse it’s position or cut it’s losses short. the EA seems to have some trouble when price is flat and going nowhere, and it triumphs when price begins to trend (be it up or down).

i believe that William Boatright’s got a winner here. however, after seeing so many EAs rise and fall, all i can confidently say is that Bogie-NN-v8 is currently the ‘flavor of the month’. it’s profitability and consistency has been fantastic so far, and i really hope that it will maintain like that for as long as possible.

if you don’t already know, William Boatright is leasing the EA at a monthly subscription fee of US$49.50. if you are interested in getting a 20% discount off that price, all you need to do is to send an email to bogie@ckowyong.com and you will receive instructions on how you can save 20% and pay just US$39.60

William has worked hard in developing this fantastic EA. with our patronage and support, i believe he will continue to do what he does best so that all of us (including him) can make good money using his Expert Advisors.

all the best in your trading!

ck

ps : i’ll be away for a 5-day seminar and will have limited access to email. thought of letting you know in case you think that i’m avoiding you or something :O)

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yes… William Boatright is back… with a vengeance :O)

the Bogie-NN-v8 is William Boatright’s latest Neural Network Expert Advisor. details of the EA can be found on his website : http://bogie-enterprises.com

the Bogie-NN-8 EA was officially launched on 1st June 2008. and this time round, William has made available a FREE DEMO that will work till 1st Sept 2008 (a very rare practice for commercial EAs, but a very welcomed move for consumers!)

i got my copy a few days before it’s official release, and have been forward-testing it since 28th May 2008. the forward-test statement (updated every 30 mins) can be found here : http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements/bogie-neuralnetwork-8/statement.htm

… and here’s the InterbankFX read-only investor password for the demo that i’m running off my server :

Login : 2034350 (IBFX), Read-only Password : acv4udn

i’m running the demo on default settings… and in just barely 3 weeks, the demo account is up almost +40% (it would be +53.11% if i closed the existing trade to take the $1,326.00 profit!… that’s 191 pips!)

William Boatright is highly respected in the EA development community. i believe his niche is in optimization. a friend in Facebook once called him the “Optimization Beast”… and that’s a compliment :O)

anyway, in my opinion, William is a good man. since his fame at the ATC2007, he’s been working really hard in replicating the success that he had in a very challenging market. with the relaease of Bogie-NN-v8, i believe he has created something that deserves our attention.  but putting all the excitement aside, i must also declare my reservations about this EA (or any other EAs that show excellent forward-testing results, fondly remembering the older version of DoublePlay and RobinHood).

being bitten by the Bogie-ATC2007-1 EA back in Jan 2008 with many others, the million-dollar question in my mind now (and i believe you would be asking too) is…

“how long will this last?“.

BUT…. there’s also another louder voice in my head that’s bugging me with…

“JUST DO IT!… WHILE IT’S STILL WORKING!!“

this is going to be a thought that’s going to be with me through the weekend. i’ll be looking into the statement more carefully to determine if the risks are acceptable, as well as if the entries are good from the start. will post a preliminary “review” about Bogie-NN-v8 hopefully by Monday. do stay tuned!!

if you would like to get a copy of the Bogie-NN-v8 demo Expert Advisor to test yourself, here’s the link to get it : http://bogie-enterprises.com/bogie-blog

and if you are as excited as me about this EA and can’t wait to subscribe to it at a 20% discount, drop me an email at ck@ckowyong.com and i’ll send you the details on how you can get it at $39.60 per month… instead of the usual $49.50.

more later…

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although i’ve already found what i’ve been looking for, the Expert Advisor that i like does not suit everyone’s trading style.

for some time now, i’ve been monitoring the progress of this EA called Artemis-Breakout. it’s a subscription-based EA that costs 70€ per month (minimum subscription of 2 months!). yeap, i’m paying 140€ to test this Expert Advisor out. as much as i want to know how this EA performs, i hope readers of this blog will benefit from the LIVE forward test results that’s being updated every 30 mins.

http://www.ckowyong.com/blog/statements/artemis-breakout

i may not have the correct settings running yet (it’s quite a complex EA to set up), so settings may change and the demo account may be restarted if required. but by the end of 2 months, we should have enough good data to give the Artemis-Breakout EA a decent review :O)

coffee anyone? :O)

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a friend posted a link to this interesting video about forex-killer.com. i’ve not used it before, so can’t post a review about it. but from what i read on the internet, i’ll pass on this one…. and all other Expert Advisors that have little people popping up and talking in your face when you visit the site :O)

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there’s nothing to blog about today….

nothing’s happening….

coffee break anyone?

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